Could 2026 be a bad year for subsidence? What homeowners should look for

2026 could prove to be a bad year for property subsidence. If you notice a new crack, an existing crack becoming wider or longer, doors or windows beginning to stick, unexplained wallpaper rippling or a floor starting to slope, don’t wait to see if it worsens.

A crack does not automatically mean that your home is subsiding. Buildings can develop minor cracks for many reasons, including ordinary drying, temperature changes and the natural settlement of newer structures. However, some patterns of cracking and distortion warrant professional consideration, particularly after a prolonged period of hot, dry weather. The Association of British Insurers (ABI) and RICS both advise homeowners to seek help where new or developing signs cause concern.

Why could 2026 be a bad year for subsidence?

The summer of 2026 was provisionally the UK’s warmest on record. It was also dry with England receiving 64% of its average summer rainfall and Wales 59%. England recorded its driest July since records began in 1836.

Although some areas saw rain in August, it wasn’t enough to restore soil moisture levels. The Environment Agency reported that soils remained much drier than average across much of England and thirteen areas in eastern and south-eastern England experienced their driest combined July and August since records began in 1871.

Dry weather does not mean that every property will experience movement. The risk depends on factors including the type of geology that the house stands on, foundation design, nearby vegetation and trees, drainage and localised ground conditions. Nevertheless, prolonged warmth and low rainfall create conditions in which clay soils can dry and shrink.

The ABI reported that insurers paid £72 million for domestic subsidence claims during the second quarter of 2026, with the average claim reaching £20,000, more than £2,000 higher than in the same period in 2025. Both Axa Insurance and independent loss adjusters, The Innovation Group, have already described 2026 as a “surge year” for subsidence.

Past hot, dry summers show how quickly volumes can rise. More than 10,000 households made subsidence claims worth £64 million between July and September 2018. In 2022, the ABI recorded 23,000 claims across the year, of which 18,000 arrived during the second half, with an expected total cost of £219 million.

The Innovation Group says subsidence notifications are tracking ahead of equivalent points in 2018 and 2022. It anticipates approximately 25,000 to 30,000 claims nationally, with a possibility of approaching 35,000 if soil-moisture deficits persist. This remains the forecast and much depends on future ground and weather conditions.

Why dry ground can affect a home

Clay-rich soil changes volume with its moisture content. It absorbs water and swells when wet but can become hard, crack and shrink as it dries. If this shrinkage is uneven beneath a property, one part of the foundation may move more than another, placing stress on walls and openings and potentially causing cracking or distortion.

Nearby trees and large shrubs may contribute by drawing additional moisture from clay soils. Leaking drains can also be relevant, particularly where escaping water softens or washes away susceptible ground. Neither trees nor drains should automatically be blamed without investigation, and homeowners should not remove mature trees as a quick fix without specialist advice.

What signs should you take seriously?

Most homes develop minor cracks at some point. Narrow, uniform cracks—particularly in fresh plaster, newer homes or recently built extensions—may result from drying, normal settlement, temperature or humidity changes. However, the following signs deserve attention:

• A crack that has appeared suddenly or is visibly widening

• Diagonal or stepped cracking, particularly around doors or windows

• A crack that tapers or is noticeably wider at one end than the other

• Corresponding cracking visible both inside and outside

• Doors or windows that suddenly become difficult to open or close

• Wallpaper wrinkling, rippling or tearing without an obvious cause

• A solid floor that appears newly sloping or dipping

These indicators are not proof of subsidence. RICS advises obtaining specialist help as soon as possible when such symptoms appear without an obvious explanation.

Where subsidence is involved, the sooner it is diagnosed the better

Subsidence frequently requires investigation over time rather than an instant diagnosis. Depending on the circumstances, claims specialists may examine the building and foundations, assess the soil, inspect nearby drains, consider vegetation and monitor cracks. Monitoring can help establish whether movement is continuing, how significant it is and whether it follows a seasonal pattern.

This evidence helps distinguish subsidence from ordinary settlement, thermal movement or another cause, and informs the appropriate response. In some cases, repairing leaking pipework or addressing an identified vegetation issue may be sufficient, so underpinning is not required.

Prompt notification cannot guarantee that a claim will be straightforward or prevent every crack from worsening. However, it does allow the circumstances to be assessed and suitable next steps discussed without unnecessary delay. The ABI advises homeowners to contact their insurance provider as soon as possible following damage and specifically tells anyone concerned about possible subsidence to seek professional advice and contact their insurer.

Subsidence can feel alarming, but in most cases it can be successfully managed and repaired. The important thing is not to panic and not to ignore a change.

References

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6aa2be234e17456e2cdf5359/National_Water_Situation_Report_England_August_2026.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/summer-2026-provisionally-hottest-on-record-for-the-uk